Bonus Blog post: Comparing Crises

Hello friends, this week I've got a bonus blog post, somewhat different than the normal topics we usually cover. Inspiration hit and I had to get it out. I hope you enjoy it!

This week, my squadron had the pleasure of hosting Rita J. King for a talk on color mindset, and her project Power Pairs. As part of her presentation, Rita facilitated a thought exercise in which we looked at different sides of a historical event. She chose the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962, in which the Soviet Union attempted to deploy nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles to Cuba. President John F. Kenendy, along with his staff, military and intelligence services, and advisors, spent 13 days working to deescalate the situation. Using Rita's color mindset model, we looked at the various approaches that could have been taken during the crisis in addition to what actually occurred. It was a fantastic opportunity to see how we think, and I'm sure that Rita will be back to facilitate some more with our Wardroom and CPO Mess.

During the exercises, it occurred to me that President John F. Kennedy was obsessed with the July Crisis of 1914, the period that immediately preceded the outbreak of the First World War. He had a copy of Barbara Tuchman’s ‘The Guns of August’ on his shelf in the Oval Office, an important part of Great War scholarshop that was published in January 1962. Tuchman's thesis was that rigid military structures and entangled alliances led the world to war in 1914 and JFK was equally convinced that the crisis on Cuba could quickly turn into a new Great War, with nuclear armed states escalating hostilities beyond the point of no return.

The reason Kennedy was so motivated to solve the issue was his own lived experience as a U.S. Navy Officer during the Second World War; he knew that the events of the 1930's and 1940's were directly caused by the failed peace settlement that ended the Great War. Without the benefit of hindsight to know whether or not the Cold War could turn kinetic at any moment, of if the world was in the midst of a new inter-war period, JFK worked tirelessly with his Soviet counterparts to avoid a Third World War. While we're comparing crises, let's take a look at July 1914.

Beginning with the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand on 28 June that year, a series of diplomatic missteps, miscommunication, and outright government subterfuge unfolded across Europe. Franz Ferdinand was the heir to the dual monarchy of Austria-Hungaria and a great friend of the German Kaiser. Over the course of the next month, Germany offered Austria-Hungary a ‘blank cheque’ in defense against Serbia, whose rogue security services had recruited the teenager that killed the Archduke. Austria-Hungary then delayed for more than three weeks before issuing an ultimatum to Serbia, a list of demands purposely designed to be rejected outright, and thereby provide justification for war. Serbia called on its great patron, Russia, for help, which in turn led to the Russian Czar ordering a general mobilization. This triggered Germany to execute its plans to defeat the Entente and invade France, who had been inciting the Russians to mobilize, through neutral Belgium. The violation of Belgium, whose security was guaranteed via treaty by Britain, brought that country into the war. By August 1914, ten million men were headed to the front.

In time, Japan, the Ottoman Empire, Italy, Romania, and the United States would all join the Great War, which lasted four years, three months, and two weeks. Its cost was an estimated 8.5 million combatant lives and 13.5 million civilian lives. More British, French, and Italian soldiers died in the First World War than died in the Second. The first use of chemical weapons, the first large-scale employment of industrialized, mechanized warfare, and the dawn of the airplane as a weapon all occurred during this conflict. The Armenian Genocide took place during this time. A flu pandemic erupted toward the end of the war, killing somewhere between 25 and 50 million people worldwide.

The First World War sparked the Russian Revolution, and ended the Russian, Austro-Hungarian, German, and Ottoman Empires. India started on the road to independence, and the Great War made independent-minded nations of Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Japan gained a leaping head start on its Pacific empire, and America broke out as a world power. Irish nationalism was reinvigorated, and Poland, Czechoslovakia, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia were created as independent states. Zionist ideals expanded rapidly during this period.

The failure to end the Great War amicably or definitively led to another world war just 20 years later. The impacts of this failed peace settlement can still be seen today, most easily in the Balkans, Ukraine, and the Middle East. The origins of Naziism, the foundations of the Cold War, and Chinese nationalism all begin in the aftermath of the First World War. It is a mistake to think that the war ended on November 11, 1918; it continued on in the Russian Civil War, the Turkish War of Independence, and the Egyptian Revolution, among many other conflicts.

The list of men who returned home from the front and the peace conference with ideas of war, freedom, nationalism, and pride who would go on to shape the remainder of the 20th century in statesmanship, war, politics, and the arts is staggering: C.S. Lewis. T.E. Lawrence. David Ben Gurion. Ernest Hemmingway. Mustafa Kemal. J.R.R. Tolkien. Adolf Hitler. John Nash. Charles DeGaulle. Harry Truman. Ho Chi Minh. Lu Zhengxiang. Josef Tito. Otto Dix. Benito Mussolini. Ernst Junger. In these names we can hear the whispers of the Second World War as well as the Cold War, which brought us to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

All that being said, many violent events and intense regional conflicts took place in the 15 years before June 1914, none of which immediately triggered a wider war. The Boxer Rebellion occurred, and the Eight-Nation Alliance was formed to put it down. The Russo-Japanese and Italo-Turkish wars were fought and concluded. The American President, Japanese Prime Minister, and Italian King were assassinated. Russia had a revolution, and two brutal wars broke out in the Balkans. None of these events caused a global conflict, yet almost all of them are considered factors for the outbreak of the First World War. There was a moment, however brief, in July 1914 where events turned, and instead of a small regional conflict that could be charactarzied as the Third Balkan War, we got the First World War. There was a similar moment in October 1962, and the world did not go to war. The conflict was resolved peacefully, with mutual respect and understanding, because the lessons of July 1914 were were forefront in JFK's mind.

I have not read every book on the First World War; nobody has or ever could. There are tens of thousands of works written on the subject. The WW1 Museum and Memorial in Kansas City lists over 1,100 titles in English on their website. I have, however, read a few books that have helped me understand the July Crisis, the Great War, and the Paris Peace Conference. Here’s three titles, and a series of YouTube videos that I recommend watching that will help you draw a line from the Great War straight through to today.

The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914 - Christopher Clark The July Crisis is analyzed in depth in this work; if the book seems a little daunting, I totally understand the hesitancy. In that case, I recommend the talk that Chris gave to the WW1 Museum, it's on YouTube and here is the link.

The First World War - Hew Strachan A brief yet detailed overview of the July Crisis, the war, and the Paris Peace Conference. A ten-part series was released in 2003 that is basically the book in video form,and can be found on YouTube, which is an excellent way to dive in to the history if you're not familiar with it.

Paris 1919: Six Months That Changed the World - Margaret MacMillan On a list of the most important events of the 20th century, surely the Paris Peace Conference ranks near the top. Margaret's work is one of the best books I've ever read on any topic; if you want to understand just how badly a group of people could screw up a peace settlement, read this book.

Among her many talks and presentations, Margaret MacMillan also took part in an IQ2 debate focused on whether or not Britain should have fought in the First World War. Some may be surprised to hear this is an active debate even today. You can find that here.

The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk was concluded between Russia and Germany in the middle of the Great War, and ended Russia's involvement as a belligerent. The treaty was negated by the Paris Peace Conference, but nevertheless impacted the Europe quite significantly at that time and continues to affect us today, notably in Ukraine. Here's a talk from David Stone on the topic.

Japan's gains in the Pacific at the expense of Germany and in defiance of American, British, and Australian concerns about the stability of the region played a pivotal role in the inter-war period and the opening months of the Second World War. Frederick Dickinson wrote two books on Japan in WW1, and gave this talk to the WW1 Museum and Memorial on the topic.

If you've read these books or seen the videos, let us know in the comments. These days, I'm quite focused on tense situations that have the potential to drag us all into war. I'm sure I'm not the only one.

I wish you all the very best, be safe and well.

Tony

One of the best books you can read on the July Crisis